BelgianSpur on the current standings, how teams got there and what the season still holds….
As the 23rd matchday week of PL comes to a close tonight with Stoke facing Manchester United, 60% of the PL season has now been played.
Before the European cups start again, I thought it was worthwhile to have a look at the standings, with a specific focus on the top 6.
*The first thing to say is that the current table almost exactly matches the ‘transfer spend table’, ie how much each team in the top 6 spent on transfers. Whether in absolute spend or net spend, there seems to be a trend.
*The two Manchester clubs spent lots and sold little, and they’re both ahead of the pack so far, especially if Man U beat Stoke as they normally should tonight (although Man U is significantly under performing comparatively, given that they’ve spent about as much as City).
*Next up are clubs like Liverpool and Chelsea, who have spent large amounts, but also sold significant players. We seem to be in a class of our own in the top 6, with a modest net transfer spend and little player turnover, while Arsenal have sold many players (a trend which may yet continue if Alexis leaves), and only really invested sizably in Lacazette.
*Of course, this may yet change in the next 2 weeks if teams buy or sell significantly, but the overall trend nonetheless seems to be that spending speaks (hardly a surprise).
*Looking at the footballing side of things, City lead the pack in many categories. Before the Liverpool game, they had the best defensive record and the best attacking record. The 4 goals conceded last night changed that (Chelsea and Man U have both conceded one less now), but they’re 1st because they’re not conceding very much and scoring plenty. Man U, Chelsea and Spurs are all following a relatively similar trend (in the top 5 for both categories) to explain their standing, but just not doing it quite as well. Liverpool and Arsenal, on the other hand, are conceding significantly more than other top 6 teams, but in Liverpool’s case, they’re scoring more than the average top 6 team too.
*Looking at how the top 6 have performed amongst themselves compared to the rest: City have picked up a whopping 83% of points available to them vs top 6 teams, and 92% versus the rest. They are beating any team put in front of them, regardless of the size of the club.
*Man U (56% vs top 6, 78% vs the rest), Liverpool (43% vs top 6, 79% vs the rest), and Chelsea (50% vs top 6, 74% vs the rest) are together in the table because they have performed similarly: get about half of the points available to them against top 6 opponents, and 75% of points vs the rest.
*We’ve collected a dismal 20% of points vs top 6 opponents, and 76% vs the rest. Arsenal have under performed overall, having picked up 29% of points vs top 6 teams and 69% vs the rest.
*So if the stats tell us anything, it’s that in order to be in the mix for top 4, you have to pick up about 75% of points available to you against the average teams. The record vs the top 6 matters less, as the limited number of games can only impact the overall standings so much, but it could be the difference between making it or missing out.
*Looking ahead, Liverpool and Arsenal only have 3 games remaining against top 6 teams. City and Chelsea have 4 left, and United and us have 5 left. City are still involved in 4 competitions, while all other teams are still involved in 3.
BelgianSpur
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